For the third consecutive month this monsoon, rainfall over the country is expected to be normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
Moreover, cumulative rainfall in August and September will also be normal over India. Quantitatively, rainfall will range between 94 and 106 per cent of the Long Period Average.
Normal or above rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-Chandigarh, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh. But Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Kerala, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura will receive below normal rainfall in August, said Mohapatra.
“Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and areas along Gangetic West Bengal will receive some good rain spells during August. It will make up for the rainfall deficit that has been prevailing since June this year,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of IMD.
The monsoon trough, which presently lies to the north of its normal position, will start shifting southwards from August 5. “This will revive rainfall over central India,” added Mohapatra.
The rainfall in July this year has been unique in multiple ways. This is the first time since 2005 when the country’s July rainfall ended with 17 per cent surplus. With 42 per cent surplus rain, July this year was central India’s wettest since 1992.
In stark contrast, east and northeast India witnessed 44 per cent rainfall deficit, making it the driest July in 102 years, said IMD officials.
Such vast rainfall variation was attributed to the prolonged stay of the monsoon trough to the south of its normal position and the formation of four low-pressure systems resulting in a total of 21 low-pressure days against a normal of three low-pressure systems and 14 associated days in July.
This led to localised flooding in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, whereas dry weather continued for majority days over Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and some areas of northeast India regions, explained IMD officials.