The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of continuing heavy rainfall over Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Saturday.
On Friday, extremely heavy rainfall (over 204mm in 24-hours) was recorded at many places in Uttar Pradesh. Fatehpur tehsil (290mm), Ramnagar (270mm) and Haidargarh (210mm) — in Barabanki district — remained among the wettest areas of the country on the day. Lucknow (airport) recorded 160mm of rainfall.
Presently, Uttar Pradesh and its neighbourhood areas remain under the influence of a well-marked low-pressure area, which has persisted since Thursday.
“As the well-marked low-pressure system has recurved towards UP and will persist there, UP will continue to receive rainfall till Saturday. The rainfall intensity, thereafter, will start reducing from Sunday onwards,” said Anupam Kashyapi, head, weather forecasting division, IMD, Pune.
The prevailing low-pressure system is possibly only the second synoptic system (low pressure/depression, etc.) since June to cause rainfall over UP. The season, overall, has seen poor rainfall activity over the state, which remains among the driest in the country. It is yet to receive normal seasonal rainfall this year. As on Friday, UP’s rainfall situation stood at -39 per cent, with the state, so far, receiving 427mm of rainfall.
Meanwhile, the Southwest monsoon continues to remain active over large parts of central India, including parts of north Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra, UP, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.
Currently, there is a trough running between west-central Arabian Sea till the system over UP, which is attracting moist westerly winds from the Arabian Sea landwards, prevails. Besides, the monsoon trough runs to the south of its normal position, all of which are facilitating favourable conditions for the monsoon to remain active-to-vigorous over western-central India regions till the weekend.
With IMD’s Extended Range Forecast (ERF) indicating a likely development of a fresh low-pressure system in the west-central Bay of Bengal by September 18, there will be more rainfall over the central India region starting September 20. UP is most likely to benefit during the upcoming spell, as well.
“Though UP received good rainfall since Thursday and is expected to receive more rain in the coming week, the existing deficit could be reduced. But it will not be sufficient enough to cover the season’s deficit as the normals are now high,” Medha Khole, senior meteorologist from IMD, Pune, said.
This season, UP has consistently maintained a deficit ranging between 40 and 46 per cent, severely crippling its paddy cultivation.
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With just over a fortnight remaining for the monsoon season and yet another low-pressure system likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal, its movement and intensity will decide the commencement of the monsoon’s withdrawal.
According to the ERF, there is a chance of the monsoon retreating from the extreme northwestern parts of the country towards the last week of September.